Portugalete 6–0 Tolosa: Result & Stats

Portugalete

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tolosa

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Portugalete58%

×Draw23%

Tolosa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugaleteExpected goals in this matchTolosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.89

Portugalete

1.75

Tolosa

0.89

Portugalete creates 97% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 48 away

1.77

creates per match

0.96

0.81

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Portugalete

1.77

Tolosa

0.96

allows per match

Portugalete

0.81

Tolosa

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par

Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Tolosa →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw

81%

Portugalete or Tolosa

77%

Draw or Tolosa

42%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+

32%

Tolosa wins by 2+

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals

83%

Portugalete 2+ goals

52%

Portugalete 3+ goals

25%

Tolosa 1+ goals

59%

Tolosa 2+ goals

22%

Tolosa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)

75%

Tolosa (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 1.77 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Portugalete defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Portugalete scores more

58%

level

23%

Tolosa scores more

19%

Portugalete at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff