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Portugalete vs Sodupe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Portugalete
Portugalete
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sodupe
Sodupe
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Portugalete54%
×Draw25%
Sodupe21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugalete
1.61
Sodupe
0.89

Portugalete creates 81% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 28 away

creates per match

Portugalete
1.77
Sodupe
0.96

allows per match

Portugalete
0.81
Sodupe
1.46

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par
Sodupe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Sodupe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw
79%
Portugalete or Sodupe
75%
Draw or Sodupe
46%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+
29%
Sodupe wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals
80%
Portugalete 2+ goals
48%
Portugalete 3+ goals
22%
Sodupe 1+ goals
59%
Sodupe 2+ goals
22%
Sodupe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)
72%
Sodupe (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

Sodupe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 1.77 + Sodupe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sodupe attack 0.96 + Portugalete defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portugalete scores more
54%
level
25%
Sodupe scores more
21%

Portugalete at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Portugalete 0–1 Sodupe

Sodupe beat Portugalete 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Florida in Portugalete.