Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portugalete vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Portugalete
Portugalete
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
9/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Portugalete50%
×Draw26%
San Ignacio23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugalete
1.47
San Ignacio
0.90

Portugalete creates 63% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 112 away

creates per match

Portugalete
1.77
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Portugalete
0.81
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw
77%
Portugalete or San Ignacio
74%
Draw or San Ignacio
50%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+
25%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals
77%
Portugalete 2+ goals
43%
Portugalete 3+ goals
18%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
59%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
23%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)
69%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 1.77 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.47

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Portugalete defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portugalete scores more
50%
level
26%
San Ignacio scores more
23%

Portugalete at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portugalete 1 – 1 San Ignacio

Portugalete and San Ignacio drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Florida in Portugalete.