Portugalete 1–0 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

Portugalete

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Sociedad III

1/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Portugalete47%

×Draw24%

Real Sociedad III29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugaleteExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.23

Portugalete

1.65

Real Sociedad III

1.23

Portugalete creates 34% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 44 away

1.77

creates per match

1.66

0.81

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Portugalete

1.77

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Portugalete

0.81

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw

71%

Portugalete or Real Sociedad III

76%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

53%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+

25%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals

81%

Portugalete 2+ goals

49%

Portugalete 3+ goals

23%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

71%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

35%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)

62%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 1.77 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Portugalete defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portugalete scores more

47%

level

24%

Real Sociedad III scores more

29%

Portugalete at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portugalete vs Real Sociedad III

Portugalete beat Real Sociedad III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Florida in Portugalete.

Portugalete vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Portugalete vs Real Sociedad III