Portugalete 0–1 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

Portugalete

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Santander

Álvaro Bustos 37' (pen)

1/16/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Portugalete28%

×Draw29%

Racing Santander42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugaleteExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.20

Portugalete

0.93

Racing Santander

1.20

Racing Santander creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

0.71

creates per match

1.69

0.71

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Portugalete

0.71

Racing Santander

1.69

allows per match

Portugalete

0.71

Racing Santander

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw

58%

Portugalete or Racing Santander

71%

Draw or Racing Santander

72%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+

10%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals

61%

Portugalete 2+ goals

24%

Portugalete 3+ goals

7%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

70%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

34%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)

40%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 0.71 + Racing Santander defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Racing Santander attack 1.69 + Portugalete defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portugalete scores more

28%

level

29%

Racing Santander scores more

42%

Racing Santander at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Álvaro BustosPenalty

46'

Diego Rozas← Ayala

51'

B. Matić← Diego Ceballos

58'

A. Balboa← C. Omoigui

58'

Íñigo Sainz Maza← Pablo Torre

72'

Alberto Villapalos← Martín Solar

72'

Jordi Figueras← Álvaro Bustos

89'

Chopi← Esteve Monterde

89'

Valero← Antonio Salado

Portugalete

Racing

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ezequiel Loza

46'▲Diego Rozas←▼Ayala

89'▲Chopi←▼Esteve Monterde

89'▲Valero←▼Antonio Salado

Portugalete substitutes

RozasChopiValeroSantamaríaSalinasBittorPérezMoyaZekri

Manager: Solabarrieta

51'▲B. Matić←▼Diego Ceballos

58'▲A. Balboa←▼C. Omoigui

58'▲Íñigo Sainz Maza←▼Pablo Torre

72'▲Alberto Villapalos←▼Martín Solar

72'▲Jordi Figueras←▼Álvaro Bustos

Racing Santander substitutes

MatićBalboaMazaVillapalosFiguerasCejudoCrespoCamúsPablo

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Portugalete 0–1 Racing Santander

Racing Santander beat Portugalete 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 16, 2021.

Goals: Álvaro Bustos (37' pen).

The match was played at Estadio La Florida in Portugalete.

Portugalete vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Portugalete 0–1 Racing Santander