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Portugalete vs JD Somorrostro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Portugalete
Portugalete
CANC
00:00
JD Somorrostro
JD Somorrostro
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Portugalete50%
×Draw26%
JD Somorrostro24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugalete
1.51
JD Somorrostro
0.94

Portugalete creates 61% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 28 away

creates per match

Portugalete
1.77
JD Somorrostro
1.07

allows per match

Portugalete
0.81
JD Somorrostro
1.25

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par
JD Somorrostro+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

JD Somorrostro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw
76%
Portugalete or JD Somorrostro
74%
Draw or JD Somorrostro
50%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+
26%
JD Somorrostro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals
78%
Portugalete 2+ goals
44%
Portugalete 3+ goals
19%
JD Somorrostro 1+ goals
61%
JD Somorrostro 2+ goals
24%
JD Somorrostro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)
68%
JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

JD Somorrostro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 1.77 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

JD Somorrostro attack 1.07 + Portugalete defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portugalete scores more
50%
level
26%
JD Somorrostro scores more
24%

Portugalete at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Portugalete host JD Somorrostro

April 5, 2020: Portugalete take on JD Somorrostro in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Portugalete host JD Somorrostro at Estadio La Florida.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.