Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portugalete vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Portugalete
Portugalete
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
4/7/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Portugalete40%
×Draw32%
Haro Deportivo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugalete
1.02
Haro Deportivo
0.80

Portugalete creates 27% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Portugalete
0.71
Haro Deportivo
0.89

allows per match

Portugalete
0.71
Haro Deportivo
1.32

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw
72%
Portugalete or Haro Deportivo
68%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
60%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+
16%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals
64%
Portugalete 2+ goals
27%
Portugalete 3+ goals
8%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
55%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
19%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)
59%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 0.71 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Portugalete defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Portugalete scores more
40%
level
32%
Haro Deportivo scores more
28%

Portugalete at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portugalete 0 – 0 Haro Deportivo

Portugalete and Haro Deportivo drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Florida in Portugalete.