Portugalete 0–0 Deportivo Alavés II: Result & Stats

Portugalete

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Alavés II

2/6/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Portugalete49%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Alavés II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugaleteExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.71

Portugalete

1.25

Deportivo Alavés II

0.71

Portugalete creates 76% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

0.71

creates per match

0.71

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Portugalete

0.71

Deportivo Alavés II

0.71

allows per match

Portugalete

0.71

Deportivo Alavés II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw

79%

Portugalete or Deportivo Alavés II

70%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés II

51%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+

23%

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals

71%

Portugalete 2+ goals

36%

Portugalete 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

51%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

16%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)

70%

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 0.71 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Alavés II attack 0.71 + Portugalete defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Portugalete scores more

49%

level

30%

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

21%

Portugalete at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Fernando Rubio← Ayala

31'

L. Llacer

31'

L. Llacer

56'

A. Țîrlea← Alan Godoy

61'

Jacobo Alcalde← Antonio Salado

65'

Sergi García← Marino Illescas

77'

Mario Musy← Thaylor Lubanzadio

90+1'

Orobiogoikoetxea← Álex Balboa

Portugalete

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Asier Santana

15'▲Fernando Rubio←▼Ayala

61'▲Jacobo Alcalde←▼Antonio Salado

77'▲Mario Musy←▼Thaylor Lubanzadio

Portugalete substitutes

RubioAlcaldeMusyRodríguezIbarbiaBernardoLandetaValeroRodríguez

Manager: Iñigo Calderón

56'▲A. Țîrlea←▼Alan Godoy

65'▲Sergi García←▼Marino Illescas

90+1'▲Orobiogoikoetxea←▼Álex Balboa

Deportivo Alavés II substitutes

ȚîrleaGarcíaOrobiogoikoetxeaAdriánBerlangaGutiIbraErrajiFrau