Portugalete 0–1 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Portugalete

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barakaldo

Endika Bujan 85'

3/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Portugalete37%

×Draw27%

Barakaldo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugaleteExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.27

Portugalete

1.30

Barakaldo

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 34 away

1.78

creates per match

1.74

0.81

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Portugalete

1.78

Barakaldo

1.74

allows per match

Portugalete

0.81

Barakaldo

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Barakaldo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw

64%

Portugalete or Barakaldo

73%

Draw or Barakaldo

63%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+

17%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals

73%

Portugalete 2+ goals

37%

Portugalete 3+ goals

14%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

72%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

36%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)

51%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.81 · 99 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 1.78 + Barakaldo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.30

Barakaldo attack 1.74 + Portugalete defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Portugalete scores more

37%

level

27%

Barakaldo scores more

36%

Portugalete at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Alvaro Iglesias← Orobiogoikoetxea

56'

Unax Alvarez← Xabi Naveira

61'

Mikel Cubería← Ekhi Bravo

65'

Montes← Jon Urkiza

65'

Cortezón← Bittor

65'

Endika Bujan← Íñigo Orozco

72'

Íñigo Ibargoien← Peciña

72'

Oier Herrera← Xabi Cárdenas

81'

Unai Arieta← Urki Txoperena

85'

Endika Bujan

89'

Mikel Castrillejo← Ekaitz Molina

Portugalete

Barakaldo

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▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

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Manager: Aketza Gonzalez

56'▲Alvaro Iglesias←▼Orobiogoikoetxea

56'▲Unax Alvarez←▼Xabi Naveira

61'▲Mikel Cubería←▼Ekhi Bravo

72'▲Íñigo Ibargoien←▼Peciña

72'▲Oier Herrera←▼Xabi Cárdenas

Portugalete substitutes

IglesiasAlvarezCuberíaIbargoienHerrera

Manager: Imanol de la Sota

65'▲Montes←▼Jon Urkiza

65'▲Cortezón←▼Bittor

65'▲Endika Bujan←▼Íñigo Orozco

81'▲Unai Arieta←▼Urki Txoperena

89'▲Mikel Castrillejo←▼Ekaitz Molina

Barakaldo substitutes

MontesCortezónBujanArietaCastrillejo