Portugalete 1–1 Balmaseda: Result & Stats

Portugalete

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Balmaseda

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portugalete51%

×Draw27%

Balmaseda22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugaleteExpected goals in this matchBalmaseda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.84

Portugalete

1.45

Balmaseda

0.84

Portugalete creates 73% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 30 away

1.77

creates per match

0.87

0.81

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Portugalete

1.77

Balmaseda

0.87

allows per match

Portugalete

0.81

Balmaseda

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par

Balmaseda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Balmaseda →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw

78%

Portugalete or Balmaseda

73%

Draw or Balmaseda

49%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+

26%

Balmaseda wins by 2+

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals

77%

Portugalete 2+ goals

42%

Portugalete 3+ goals

18%

Balmaseda 1+ goals

57%

Balmaseda 2+ goals

21%

Balmaseda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)

70%

Balmaseda (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

Balmaseda away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 1.77 + Balmaseda defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.45

Balmaseda attack 0.87 + Portugalete defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Portugalete scores more

51%

level

27%

Balmaseda scores more

22%

Portugalete at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff