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Portugal W vs Ukraine W — Friendlies Women 2026

Portugal W
Portugal W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ukraine W
Ukraine W
J. Silva 45+2', 19'
7/7/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Portugal W69%
×Draw18%
Ukraine W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal W
2.33
Ukraine W
0.91

Portugal W creates 156% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Portugal W
2.00
Ukraine W
0.67

allows per match

Portugal W
1.14
Ukraine W
2.67

finishing

Portugal W+0.00on par
Ukraine W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal W ↓

Ukraine W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Portugal W or draw
87%
Portugal W or Ukraine W
82%
Draw or Ukraine W
31%

Winning margin

Portugal W wins by 2+
46%
Ukraine W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Portugal W 1+ goals
90%
Portugal W 2+ goals
67%
Portugal W 3+ goals
41%
Ukraine W 1+ goals
60%
Ukraine W 2+ goals
23%
Ukraine W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portugal W (draw refunded)
84%
Ukraine W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Ukraine W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal W attack 2.00 + Ukraine W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ukraine W attack 0.67 + Portugal W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Portugal W scores more
69%
level
18%
Ukraine W scores more
13%

Portugal W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Portugal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
J. Silva
45+2'
J. Silva
60'
60'
61'
A. Seica← D. Gomes
61'
D. Silva← T. Pinto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Portugal W 2–0 Ukraine W

Portugal W beat Ukraine W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on July 7, 2023.

Goals: J. Silva (19', 45+2').

The match was played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Porto.