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Portugal W vs Greece W — Friendlies Women 2026

Portugal W
Portugal W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Greece W
Greece W
F. Nazareth 43', 28'
D. Gomes 36'
D. Silva 14' (pen)
6/22/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Portugal W56%
×Draw24%
Greece W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal W
1.72
Greece W
0.91

Portugal W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Portugal W
2.00
Greece W
0.67

allows per match

Portugal W
1.14
Greece W
1.44

finishing

Portugal W+0.00on par
Greece W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal W ↓

Greece W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portugal W or draw
80%
Portugal W or Greece W
76%
Draw or Greece W
44%

Winning margin

Portugal W wins by 2+
31%
Greece W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portugal W 1+ goals
82%
Portugal W 2+ goals
51%
Portugal W 3+ goals
25%
Greece W 1+ goals
60%
Greece W 2+ goals
23%
Greece W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portugal W (draw refunded)
74%
Greece W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Greece W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal W attack 2.00 + Greece W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Greece W attack 0.67 + Portugal W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Portugal W scores more
56%
level
24%
Greece W scores more
20%

Portugal W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Portugal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. SilvaPenalty
18'
P. Chatzicharistou
28'
F. Nazareth
36'
D. Gomes
43'
F. Nazareth
51'
E. Nefrou
60'
D. Silva← A. Norton
61'
A. Borges← A. Borges
61'
D. Silva← T. Encarnacao
61'
J. Marchao
63'
A. Spyridonidou← A. Spyridonidou
63'
I. Papatheodorou← I. Papatheodorou
66'
A. Faria← A. Faria
66'
C. Costa← D. Gomes
67'
V. Marques← V. Marques
75'
M. Kapnisi← M. Kapnisi
75'
I. Goula← I. Goula
79'
G. Pouliou← G. Pouliou
81'
I. Papatheodorou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Portugal W 4–0 Greece W

Portugal W beat Greece W 4-0 in Friendlies Women on June 22, 2022.

Goals: D. Silva (14' pen), F. Nazareth (28', 43'), D. Gomes (36').

The match was played at Estádio do Restelo in Lisboa.