Portugal W 1–1 Australia W: Result & Stats

Portugal W

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Australia W

Telma Encarnação 87'

P. Ibini 73'

6/28/2022

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Portugal W58%

×Draw21%

Australia W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal WExpected goals in this matchAustralia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.15

Portugal W

2.05

Australia W

1.15

Portugal W creates 78% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

2.00

creates per match

1.17

1.14

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Portugal W

2.00

Australia W

1.17

allows per match

Portugal W

1.14

Australia W

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal W+0.00on par

Australia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal W ↓

Australia W →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Portugal W or draw

79%

Portugal W or Australia W

79%

Draw or Australia W

42%

Winning margin

Portugal W wins by 2+

35%

Australia W wins by 2+

Team goals

Portugal W 1+ goals

87%

Portugal W 2+ goals

61%

Portugal W 3+ goals

33%

Australia W 1+ goals

68%

Australia W 2+ goals

32%

Australia W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Portugal W (draw refunded)

73%

Australia W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portugal W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Australia W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portugal W attack 2.00 + Australia W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Australia W attack 1.17 + Portugal W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Portugal W scores more

58%

level

21%

Australia W scores more

21%

Portugal W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Portugal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

C. Nevin

46'

P. Ibini← R. Siemsen

54'

Andreia Jacinto← Jéssica Silva

61'

F. Nazareth

64'

Telma Encarnação← Kika Nazareth

64'

Sílvia Rebelo← Diana Gomes

65'

C. Grant

68'

T. Encarnacao

73'

P. Ibini↳ E. Gielnik

82'

Carolina Mendes← Andreia Norton

82'

Fátima Pinto← Dolores Silva

84'

A. Sayer← L. Crummer

87'

Telma Encarnação↳ Carolina Mendes

Portugal

Australia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francisco Neto

54'▲Andreia Jacinto←▼Jéssica Silva

64'▲Telma Encarnação←▼Kika Nazareth

64'▲Sílvia Rebelo←▼Diana Gomes

82'▲Carolina Mendes←▼Andreia Norton

82'▲Fátima Pinto←▼Dolores Silva

Portugal W substitutes

6Jacinto23Encarnação4Rebelo18Mendes13Pinto17Alves22Costa9Borges7Marques12Morais3Correia21Faria

Manager: T. Gustavsson

46'▲P. Ibini←▼R. Siemsen

84'▲A. Sayer←▼L. Crummer

Australia W substitutes

25Ibini26Sayer12Micah32Heatley27Rankin18Arnold30Galabadaarachchi33McNamara31Hawkesby

Friendlies Women: Portugal W 1–1 Australia W

Portugal W and Australia W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on June 28, 2022.

Goals: P. Ibini (73'), Telma Encarnação (87').

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.

Portugal W vs Australia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Portugal W 1–1 Australia W