Portugal 6–1 Switzerland: Result & Stats

Portugal

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Switzerland

Rafael Leão 90+2'

Gonçalo Ramos 67', 51', 17'

Raphaël Guerreiro 55'

Pepe 33'

M. Akanji 58'

12/6/2022

World Cup · Round of 16Lusail Iconic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Portugal63%

×Draw20%

Switzerland17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugalExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.07

Portugal

2.21

Switzerland

1.07

Portugal creates 107% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.56

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Portugal

2.56

Switzerland

1.14

allows per match

Portugal

1.00

Switzerland

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par

Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Switzerland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Portugal or draw

83%

Portugal or Switzerland

80%

Draw or Switzerland

37%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+

40%

Switzerland wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals

89%

Portugal 2+ goals

65%

Portugal 3+ goals

38%

Switzerland 1+ goals

66%

Switzerland 2+ goals

29%

Switzerland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)

78%

Switzerland (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Switzerland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 2.56 + Switzerland defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.21

Switzerland attack 1.14 + Portugal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Portugal scores more

63%

level

20%

Switzerland scores more

17%

Portugal at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Gonçalo Ramos

Portugal · F

9.9

Match Events

17'

Gonçalo Ramos↳ João Félix

33'

Pepe↳ Bruno Fernandes

43'

Fabian Schär

46'

E. Cömert← F. Schär

51'

Gonçalo Ramos

54'

D. Zakaria← R. Freuler

54'

H. Seferović← D. Sow

55'

Raphaël Guerreiro↳ Gonçalo Ramos

58'

M. Akanji

59'

Eray Cömert

66'

N. Okafor← R. Vargas

67'

Gonçalo Ramos↳ João Félix

73'

Cristiano Ronaldo← João Félix

74'

Vitinha← Otávio

74'

Ricardo Horta← Gonçalo Ramos

81'

Rúben Neves← Bernardo Silva

87'

Rafael Leão← Bruno Fernandes

89'

A. Jashari← B. Embolo

90+2'

Rafael Leão↳ Raphaël Guerreiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortugalSwitzerland

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots10

6Corners6

12Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots10

9On Target3

3Off Target3

3Blocked4

11Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

449Total Passes488

372Accurate Passes412

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3