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Portugal vs Malta — Friendlies 2026

Portugal
Portugal
CANC
22:00
Malta
Malta
6/8/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Portugal72%
×Draw17%
Malta12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal
2.49
Malta
0.90

Portugal creates 177% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Portugal
2.69
Malta
0.86

allows per match

Portugal
0.94
Malta
2.29

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par
Malta+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Malta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Portugal or draw
88%
Portugal or Malta
83%
Draw or Malta
28%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+
49%
Malta wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals
92%
Portugal 2+ goals
71%
Portugal 3+ goals
45%
Malta 1+ goals
59%
Malta 2+ goals
23%
Malta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)
86%
Malta (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Malta away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 2.69 + Malta defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.49

Malta attack 0.86 + Portugal defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Portugal scores more
72%
level
17%
Malta scores more
12%

Portugal at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Portugal host Malta

June 8, 2020: Portugal take on Malta in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.