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Portugal vs Luxembourg — Euro Championship 2024

Portugal
Portugal
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
Gonçalo Guedes 89'
Cristiano Ronaldo 65'
Bernardo Silva 16'
10/11/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 7Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal67%
×Draw20%
Luxembourg14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal
2.11
Luxembourg
0.82

Portugal creates 157% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portugal
2.22
Luxembourg
0.75

allows per match

Portugal
0.89
Luxembourg
2.00

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par
Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Portugal or draw
86%
Portugal or Luxembourg
80%
Draw or Luxembourg
33%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+
43%
Luxembourg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals
88%
Portugal 2+ goals
62%
Portugal 3+ goals
35%
Luxembourg 1+ goals
56%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
20%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)
83%
Luxembourg (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 2.22 + Luxembourg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Luxembourg attack 0.75 + Portugal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Portugal scores more
67%
level
20%
Luxembourg scores more
14%

Portugal at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
Nélson SemedoPortugalPortugal · D
8.1

Match Events

9'
Leandro Barreiro
16'
Bernardo Silva
46'
D. Sinani← F. Bohnert
59'
D. Alves da Mota← D. Turpel
65'
Cristiano Ronaldo
71'
Gerson Rodrigues
77'
Gonçalo Guedes← Bernardo Silva
88'
João Mário← João Félix
88'
S. Bensi← V. Thill
89'
Gonçalo Guedes
90'
Rúben Neves← João Moutinho

Possession

60%Portugal

Shots

22Portugal

Pass accuracy

52%Portugal

Statistics

PortugalLuxembourg
Overview
60%Possession40%
22Total Shots6
6Corners1
8Fouls8
Shots
22Total Shots6
10On Target2
8Off Target3
4Blocked1
10Inside Box4
12Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
697Total Passes444
628Accurate Passes363
90%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
8Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Portugal vs Luxembourg

Portugal beat Luxembourg 3-0 in Euro Championship on October 11, 2019.

Goals: Bernardo Silva (16'), Cristiano Ronaldo (65'), Gonçalo Guedes (89').

Portugal controlled possession (60%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.