Portugal 6–0 Lithuania: Result & Stats

Portugal

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lithuania

Cristiano Ronaldo 65', 22', 7' (pen)

Bernardo Silva 63'

Gonçalo Paciência 56'

Pizzi 52'

11/14/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal81%

×Draw12%

Lithuania7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugalExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.86

0.70

Portugal

2.86

Lithuania

0.70

Portugal creates 309% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

2.22

creates per match

0.50

0.89

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Portugal

2.22

Lithuania

0.50

allows per match

Portugal

0.89

Lithuania

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Portugal or draw

93%

Portugal or Lithuania

88%

Draw or Lithuania

19%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+

61%

Lithuania wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals

94%

Portugal 2+ goals

77%

Portugal 3+ goals

53%

Lithuania 1+ goals

50%

Lithuania 2+ goals

16%

Lithuania 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)

93%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 2.22 + Lithuania defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.86

Lithuania attack 0.50 + Portugal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Portugal scores more

81%

level

12%

Lithuania scores more

7%

Portugal at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Cristiano Ronaldo

Portugal · M

9.3

Match Events

7'

Cristiano RonaldoPenalty

22'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ Gonçalo Paciência

27'

Markus Palionis

52'

Pizzi↳ Bruno Fernandes

56'

Gonçalo Paciência

57'

D. Matulevičius← M. Kuklys

63'

Bernardo Silva↳ Ricardo Pereira

65'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ Bernardo Silva

66'

Bruma← Bernardo Silva

72'

João Moutinho← Bruno Fernandes

72'

J. Lasickas← P. Golubickas

80'

Saulius Mikoliūnas

81'

D. Kazlauskas← F. Černych

83'

Diogo Jota← Cristiano Ronaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortugalLithuania

Overview

71%Possession29%

32Total Shots2

12Corners1

11Fouls9

Shots

32Total Shots2

13On Target0

11Off Target1

8Blocked1

21Inside Box0

11Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

773Total Passes307

705Accurate Passes235

91%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0