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Portugal U23 W vs Scotland U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Portugal U23 W
Portugal U23 W
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Scotland U23 W
Scotland U23 W
4/6/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U23 W39%
×Draw25%
Scotland U23 W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U23 W
1.44
Scotland U23 W
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portugal U23 W
1.14
Scotland U23 W
1.00

allows per match

Portugal U23 W
1.71
Scotland U23 W
1.75

finishing

Portugal U23 W+0.00on par
Scotland U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U23 W ↓

Scotland U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Portugal U23 W or draw
65%
Portugal U23 W or Scotland U23 W
75%
Draw or Scotland U23 W
61%

Winning margin

Portugal U23 W wins by 2+
19%
Scotland U23 W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Portugal U23 W 1+ goals
76%
Portugal U23 W 2+ goals
42%
Portugal U23 W 3+ goals
18%
Scotland U23 W 1+ goals
74%
Scotland U23 W 2+ goals
39%
Scotland U23 W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Portugal U23 W (draw refunded)
53%
Scotland U23 W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U23 W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Scotland U23 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U23 W attack 1.14 + Scotland U23 W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Scotland U23 W attack 1.00 + Portugal U23 W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portugal U23 W scores more
39%
level
25%
Scotland U23 W scores more
35%

Portugal U23 W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portugal U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portugal U23 W vs Scotland U23 W

Portugal U23 W and Scotland U23 W drew 0-0 in Friendlies Women on April 6, 2025.