Portugal U23 W 1–2 Italy U23 W: Result & Stats

Portugal U23 W

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Italy U23 W

M. Ferreira 49'

M. Bellucci 81'

A. Corelli 29'

4/12/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Portugal U23 W26%

×Draw24%

Italy U23 W50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U23 WExpected goals in this matchItaly U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.69

Portugal U23 W

1.15

Italy U23 W

1.69

Italy U23 W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.14

creates per match

1.67

1.71

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Portugal U23 W

1.14

Italy U23 W

1.67

allows per match

Portugal U23 W

1.71

Italy U23 W

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U23 W+0.00on par

Italy U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U23 W ↓

Italy U23 W →

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Portugal U23 W or draw

50%

Portugal U23 W or Italy U23 W

76%

Draw or Italy U23 W

74%

Winning margin

Portugal U23 W wins by 2+

10%

Italy U23 W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Portugal U23 W 1+ goals

68%

Portugal U23 W 2+ goals

32%

Portugal U23 W 3+ goals

11%

Italy U23 W 1+ goals

82%

Italy U23 W 2+ goals

50%

Italy U23 W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Portugal U23 W (draw refunded)

34%

Italy U23 W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portugal U23 W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Italy U23 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U23 W attack 1.14 + Italy U23 W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Italy U23 W attack 1.67 + Portugal U23 W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portugal U23 W scores more

26%

level

24%

Italy U23 W scores more

50%

Italy U23 W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Italy U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

A. Corelli

49'

M. Ferreira

81'

M. Bellucci

Portugal

Italy

⚽

⚽

⚽

Portugal U23 W substitutes

PinaFerreiraNogueiraMillerCostaTomazSilvaGagoPerrucaGoncalvesSilva

Manager: J. Leandri

Italy U23 W substitutes

BartaliniBerettaPellinghelliCarcassiFaddaZappettiniSciabicaPavanZanniniPfattnerGalloCatena