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Portugal U23 W vs Germany U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Portugal U23 W
Portugal U23 W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Germany U23 W
Germany U23 W
11/27/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U23 W31%
×Draw22%
Germany U23 W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U23 W
1.57
Germany U23 W
1.98

Germany U23 W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portugal U23 W
1.14
Germany U23 W
2.25

allows per match

Portugal U23 W
1.71
Germany U23 W
2.00

finishing

Portugal U23 W+0.00on par
Germany U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U23 W ↓

Germany U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Portugal U23 W or draw
53%
Portugal U23 W or Germany U23 W
78%
Draw or Germany U23 W
69%

Winning margin

Portugal U23 W wins by 2+
15%
Germany U23 W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Portugal U23 W 1+ goals
79%
Portugal U23 W 2+ goals
46%
Portugal U23 W 3+ goals
21%
Germany U23 W 1+ goals
86%
Germany U23 W 2+ goals
59%
Germany U23 W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Portugal U23 W (draw refunded)
40%
Germany U23 W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U23 W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Germany U23 W away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U23 W attack 1.14 + Germany U23 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Germany U23 W attack 2.25 + Portugal U23 W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portugal U23 W scores more
31%
level
22%
Germany U23 W scores more
47%

Germany U23 W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Germany U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Portugal U23 W 3–1 Germany U23 W

Portugal U23 W beat Germany U23 W 3-1 in Friendlies Women on November 27, 2025.