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Portugal U23 W vs France U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Portugal U23 W
Portugal U23 W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
France U23 W
France U23 W
10/23/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U23 W54%
×Draw25%
France U23 W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U23 W
1.57
France U23 W
0.85

Portugal U23 W creates 85% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portugal U23 W
1.14
France U23 W
0.00

allows per match

Portugal U23 W
1.71
France U23 W
2.00

finishing

Portugal U23 W+0.00on par
France U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U23 W ↓

France U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portugal U23 W or draw
80%
Portugal U23 W or France U23 W
75%
Draw or France U23 W
46%

Winning margin

Portugal U23 W wins by 2+
29%
France U23 W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Portugal U23 W 1+ goals
79%
Portugal U23 W 2+ goals
46%
Portugal U23 W 3+ goals
21%
France U23 W 1+ goals
57%
France U23 W 2+ goals
21%
France U23 W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Portugal U23 W (draw refunded)
73%
France U23 W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U23 W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

France U23 W away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U23 W attack 1.14 + France U23 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

France U23 W attack 0.00 + Portugal U23 W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portugal U23 W scores more
54%
level
25%
France U23 W scores more
20%

Portugal U23 W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portugal U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portugal U23 W vs France U23 W

Portugal U23 W and France U23 W drew 0-0 in Friendlies Women on October 23, 2025.