Portugal U20 1–1 Romania U20: Result & Stats

Portugal U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Romania U20

3/23/2023

League #890 · Group Stage - 2Estádio Municipal de Mafra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portugal U2053%

×Draw26%

Romania U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U20Expected goals in this matchRomania U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.88

Portugal U20

1.54

Romania U20

0.88

Portugal U20 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Portugal U20

1.75

Romania U20

1.00

allows per match

Portugal U20

0.75

Romania U20

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U20+0.00on par

Romania U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U20 ↓

Romania U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Portugal U20 or draw

78%

Portugal U20 or Romania U20

74%

Draw or Romania U20

47%

Winning margin

Portugal U20 wins by 2+

27%

Romania U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Portugal U20 1+ goals

79%

Portugal U20 2+ goals

45%

Portugal U20 3+ goals

20%

Romania U20 1+ goals

59%

Romania U20 2+ goals

22%

Romania U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Portugal U20 (draw refunded)

71%

Romania U20 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U20 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Romania U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U20 attack 1.75 + Romania U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Romania U20 attack 1.00 + Portugal U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portugal U20 scores more

53%

level

26%

Romania U20 scores more

22%

Portugal U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Portugal U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff