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Portugal U19 W vs Wales U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Portugal U19 W
Portugal U19 W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wales U19 W
Wales U19 W
C. Fernandes 84'
S. Magalhaes 78'
E. Carreira 64'
S. Hill 90'
2/27/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U19 W75%
×Draw16%
Wales U19 W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U19 W
2.50
Wales U19 W
0.78

Portugal U19 W creates 221% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portugal U19 W
2.50
Wales U19 W
0.75

allows per match

Portugal U19 W
0.80
Wales U19 W
2.50

finishing

Portugal U19 W+0.00on par
Wales U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 W ↓

Wales U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Portugal U19 W or draw
90%
Portugal U19 W or Wales U19 W
84%
Draw or Wales U19 W
25%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 W wins by 2+
52%
Wales U19 W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Portugal U19 W 1+ goals
92%
Portugal U19 W 2+ goals
71%
Portugal U19 W 3+ goals
45%
Wales U19 W 1+ goals
54%
Wales U19 W 2+ goals
18%
Wales U19 W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 W (draw refunded)
88%
Wales U19 W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Wales U19 W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 W attack 2.50 + Wales U19 W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Wales U19 W attack 0.75 + Portugal U19 W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Portugal U19 W scores more
75%
level
16%
Wales U19 W scores more
10%

Portugal U19 W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Portugal U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
E. Carreira
78'
S. Magalhaes
84'
C. Fernandes
90'
S. Hill

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Portugal U19 W 3–1 Wales U19 W

Portugal U19 W beat Wales U19 W 3-1 in Friendlies Women on February 27, 2026.

Goals: E. Carreira (64'), S. Magalhaes (78'), C. Fernandes (84'), S. Hill (90').