Portugal U19 2–2 Turkey U19: Result & Stats

Portugal U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Turkey U19

Francisco Neto 80'

Gil Martins 48'

E. Korkut 47'

H. Ertürk 41' (pen)

3/19/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Deeside College Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Portugal U1948%

×Draw24%

Turkey U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U19Expected goals in this matchTurkey U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.20

Portugal U19

1.67

Turkey U19

1.20

Portugal U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Portugal U19

2.00

Turkey U19

1.33

allows per match

Portugal U19

1.07

Turkey U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

Turkey U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw

73%

Portugal U19 or Turkey U19

76%

Draw or Turkey U19

52%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

26%

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals

81%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

50%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

23%

Turkey U19 1+ goals

70%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

34%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Turkey U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.00 + Turkey U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Turkey U19 attack 1.33 + Portugal U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portugal U19 scores more

48%

level

24%

Turkey U19 scores more

27%

Portugal U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

E. Akman

41'

H. ErtürkPenalty

44'

G. Peixoto

46'

Diogo Sousa← Eduardo Felicíssimo

46'

Gabriel Silva← Nuno Patrício

47'

E. Korkut

48'

Gil Martins

64'

Rika

65'

Keyan Varela← Rodrigo Duarte

70'

H. Erturk

76'

R. Dilek← H. Ertürk

77'

Francisco Neto← Gil Martins

77'

Martim Cunha← Tiago Parente

77'

80'

86'

88'

90'

A. Usluoğlu← E. Arkutcu

90'

D. Ofli← B. Tibukoğlu

90'

N. Dönmez← G. Gürpüz

Portugal

Turkey

12

15

3

5

13

▼

Tibukoğlu

10

▼

Gürpüz

8

⚽

Korkut

18

▼

Akman

11

Gökay

17

▼

Arkutcu

19

⚽

▼

1

4

2

13

5

▼

Parente

6

Ferreira

10

⚽

▼

Martins

19

▼

Duarte

16

▼

Felicíssi

11

Tomé

9

▼

Patrício

Manager: Filipe Ramos

46'▲Diogo Sousa←▼Eduardo Felicíssimo

46'▲Gabriel Silva←▼Nuno Patrício

65'▲Keyan Varela←▼Rodrigo Duarte

77'▲Francisco Neto←▼Gil Martins

77'▲Martim Cunha←▼Tiago Parente

Portugal U19 substitutes

15Sousa20Silva18Varela7Neto14Cunha8Moreira12Gui3Salvador17Freitas

Manager: S. Sarıoğlu

76'▲R. Dilek←▼H. Ertürk

77'▲B. Başkan←▼E. Akman

90'▲A. Usluoğlu←▼E. Arkutcu

90'▲D. Ofli←▼B. Tibukoğlu

90'▲N. Dönmez←▼G. Gürpüz

Turkey U19 substitutes

9Dilek6Başkan16Usluoğlu21Ofli20Dönmez4Çetin1Arıcan7Kaya22Yılmaz

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Portugal U19 2–2 Turkey U19

Portugal U19 and Turkey U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 19, 2025.

Goals: H. Ertürk (41' pen), E. Korkut (47'), Gil Martins (48'), Francisco Neto (80').

The match was played at Deeside College Stadium in Cei Conna / Connah's Quay, Flintshire.

Portugal U19 vs Turkey U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Portugal U19 2–2 Turkey U19