Portugal U19 4–1 Republic of Ireland U19

Portugal U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Republic of Ireland U19

Youssef Chermiti 90+5', 78'

Joelson Fernandes 90+2'

António Silva 84'

J. Kenny 25'

3/26/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4St George's Park - pitch 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Portugal U1950%

×Draw24%

Republic of Ireland U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U19Expected goals in this matchRepublic of Ireland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.19

Portugal U19

1.75

Republic of Ireland U19

1.19

Portugal U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

1.30

1.07

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Portugal U19

2.00

Republic of Ireland U19

1.30

allows per match

Portugal U19

1.07

Republic of Ireland U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par

Republic of Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

Republic of Ireland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw

74%

Portugal U19 or Republic of Ireland U19

76%

Draw or Republic of Ireland U19

50%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

27%

Republic of Ireland U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals

83%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

52%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

25%

Republic of Ireland U19 1+ goals

70%

Republic of Ireland U19 2+ goals

33%

Republic of Ireland U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Republic of Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Republic of Ireland U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.00 + Republic of Ireland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Republic of Ireland U19 attack 1.30 + Portugal U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portugal U19 scores more

50%

level

24%

Republic of Ireland U19 scores more

26%

Portugal U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

J. Kenny

46'

Diogo Travassos← Flávio Nazinho

46'

Youssef Chermiti← Martim Neto

50'

52'

57'

57'

59'

Joelson Fernandes← Diego Moreira

65'

V. Sousa

65'

Matchoi Djaló← Vasco Sousa

68'

Y. Chermiti

70'

C. Hayes

71'

Pedro Santos← João Neves

78'

80'

82'

84'

87'

90+2'

90+5'

Portugal

Republic

1

3

2

12

10

4

18

8

13

▼

Hayes

6

McJannett

7

⚽

Kenny

1

Gomes

4

⚽

Silva

2

Tomé

5

▼

Nazinho

3

Lamba

8

▼

Neto

17

▼

Sousa

20

▼

Moreira

18

▼

Neves

15

Félix

19

Falé

Manager: Rui Bento

46'▲Diogo Travassos←▼Flávio Nazinho

46'▲Youssef Chermiti←▼Martim Neto

59'▲Joelson Fernandes←▼Diego Moreira

65'▲Matchoi Djaló←▼Vasco Sousa

71'▲Pedro Santos←▼João Neves

Portugal U19 substitutes

13Travassos9Chermiti11Fernandes10Djaló7Santos16Borges6Essugo14Brás12Carvalho

Manager: T. Mohan

82'▲G. Nzingo←▼C. Hayes

Republic of Ireland U19 substitutes

15Nzingo19Adeeko16Keeley20Corbally14Grehan