Portugal U19 5–0 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Portugal U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Norway U19

Carlos Borges 69'

Rodrigo Ribeiro 66', 31'

Hugo Félix 17' (pen)

Gustavo Sá 4'

7/13/2023

UEFA U19 Championship · Semi-finalsTony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Portugal U1958%

×Draw21%

Norway U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U19Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.19

Portugal U19

2.08

Norway U19

1.19

Portugal U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

2.90

creates per match

1.67

0.70

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Portugal U19

2.90

Norway U19

1.67

allows per match

Portugal U19

0.70

Norway U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

Norway U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw

79%

Portugal U19 or Norway U19

79%

Draw or Norway U19

42%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

35%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals

87%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

61%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

34%

Norway U19 1+ goals

70%

Norway U19 2+ goals

33%

Norway U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.90 + Norway U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.08

Norway U19 attack 1.67 + Portugal U19 defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Portugal U19 scores more

58%

level

21%

Norway U19 scores more

21%

Portugal U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Rodrigo Ribeiro

Portugal U19 · F

8.9

Match Events

4'

Gustavo Sá

17'

Hugo FélixPenalty

23'

Nuno Félix

31'

Rodrigo Ribeiro↳ Gustavo Sá

43'

Gonçalo Esteves

44'

Vegard Solheim

46'

Martim Fernandes← Gonçalo Esteves

46'

Yanis da Rocha← Nuno Félix

46'

O. Sivertsen← V. Solheim

51'

H. Bruseth← O. Braude

54'

Niklas Odegard

55'

Gustavo Sá

56'

Alwande Roaldsøy

58'

João Vasconcelos← Gustavo Sá

63'

S. Aas← N. Ødegård

66'

Rodrigo Ribeiro↳ Samuel Justo

69'

Carlos Borges↳ Rodrigo Ribeiro

73'

Luís Gomes← Martim Marques

76'

Miguel Falé← Carlos Borges

86'

D. Murugesapillai← H. Bruseth

86'

V. Engh← M. Rugland Ree

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortugalNorway

Overview

53%Possession47%

24Total Shots8

7Corners4

13Fouls18

Shots

24Total Shots8

7On Target1

9Off Target4

8Blocked3

18Inside Box2

6Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

394Total Passes346

322Accurate Passes279

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0