Portugal U19 4–1 North Macedonia U19

Portugal U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

North Macedonia U19

J. Trovisco 66'

D. Soares 38'

R. Silva 26'

A. Patrao 6'

E. Sabotikj 71'

11/15/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Portugal U1962%

×Draw20%

North Macedonia U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.00

Portugal U19

2.10

North Macedonia U19

1.00

Portugal U19 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

0.93

1.07

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Portugal U19

2.00

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

Portugal U19

1.07

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw

83%

Portugal U19 or North Macedonia U19

80%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

38%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

39%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals

88%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

62%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

35%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

63%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

26%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

78%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.00 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.10

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + Portugal U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Portugal U19 scores more

62%

level

20%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

17%

Portugal U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

12'

26'

38'

46'

G. Silva← F. Goncalves

46'

T. Ferreira← T. Silva

46'

A. Murdjeski← S. Brankovski

46'

A. Loki← N. Damjanovski

62'

S. Blopa← D. Costa

62'

J. Trovisco← A. Patrao

64'

K. Andonovski

66'

J. Trovisco

71'

E. Felicissimo

71'

A. Miranda← E. Felicissimo

71'

E. Sabotikj

73'

H. Ali← A. Ljatifi

73'

M. Kish← K. Andonovski

81'

L. Kasami← A. Mehmed

Portugal

North

1

14

15

6

20

▼

Mehmed

17

▼

Andonovsk

4

⚽

Sabotikj

8

▼

Damjanovs

2

Radevski

11

▼

Brankovsk

7

▼

Ljatifi

1

Ferreira

2

▼

Costa

13

⚽

Silva

4

Sousa

5

⚽

Soares

8

▼

Silva

6

▼

Felicissi

10

▼

Goncalves

11

Vidigal

18

⚽

▼

Patrao

7

Dudu

Manager: Filipe Ramos

46'▲G. Silva←▼F. Goncalves

46'▲T. Ferreira←▼T. Silva

62'▲S. Blopa←▼D. Costa

62'▲J. Trovisco←▼A. Patrao

71'▲A. Miranda←▼E. Felicissimo

Portugal U19 substitutes

12Silva3Faria9Silva14Blopa15Miranda16Meireles17Trovisco19Ferreira20Silva

Manager: V. Stanojković

46'▲A. Murdjeski←▼S. Brankovski

46'▲A. Loki←▼N. Damjanovski

73'▲H. Ali←▼A. Ljatifi

73'▲M. Kish←▼K. Andonovski

81'▲L. Kasami←▼A. Mehmed

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

12Trajkovski3Murdjeski5Atanasovski9Ali10Kish13Krener16Ristov18Kasami19Loki