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Portugal U19 vs Malta U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Portugal U19
Portugal U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Malta U19
Malta U19
João Vasconcelos 75'
Miguel Falé 8'
B. Tuma 71'
7/9/2023UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2Gozo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Portugal U1978%
×Draw15%
Malta U197%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U19
2.35
Malta U19
0.55

Portugal U19 creates 327% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Portugal U19
2.90
Malta U19
0.40

allows per match

Portugal U19
0.70
Malta U19
1.80

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par
Malta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

Malta U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw
93%
Portugal U19 or Malta U19
85%
Draw or Malta U19
22%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+
54%
Malta U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals
90%
Portugal U19 2+ goals
68%
Portugal U19 3+ goals
41%
Malta U19 1+ goals
42%
Malta U19 2+ goals
11%
Malta U19 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)
92%
Malta U19 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Malta U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.90 + Malta U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.35

Malta U19 attack 0.40 + Portugal U19 defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Portugal U19 scores more
78%
level
15%
Malta U19 scores more
7%

Portugal U19 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
João VasconcelosPortugal U19Portugal U19 · M
7.9

Match Events

8'
Miguel Falé↳ João Vasconcelos
41'
Lucas Caruana
42'
Daniel Letherby
46'
Hugo Félix← Diogo Prioste
54'
T. Viviani← B. Hili
65'
Carlos Borges← Martim Fernandes
65'
Martim Marques← Herculano Nabian
65'
Rodrigo Ribeiro← Jorge Meireles
69'
B. Buhagiar← A. Borg
69'
B. Borg← L. Caruana
69'
S. Gatt← N. Cross
71'
B. Tuma
75'
João Vasconcelos
79'
I. Farrugia← D. Letherby
90+7'
Matthias Ellul

Possession

67%Portugal

Shots

21Portugal

Pass accuracy

55%Portugal

Statistics

PortugalMalta
Overview
67%Possession33%
21Total Shots3
9Corners1
14Fouls14
Shots
21Total Shots3
8On Target1
9Off Target1
4Blocked1
10Inside Box0
11Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
483Total Passes241
421Accurate Passes168
87%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides4

UEFA U19 Championship: Portugal U19 2–1 Malta U19

Portugal U19 beat Malta U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on July 9, 2023.

Goals: Miguel Falé (8'), B. Tuma (71'), João Vasconcelos (75').

Portugal U19 controlled possession (67%) and registered 21 shots to 3.

The match was played at Gozo Stadium in Gozo.