Portugal U19 0–6 England U19: Result & Stats

Portugal U19

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

England U19

H. Howell 88'

S. Mheuka 85'

E. Mayers 75'

J. Derry 60', 4'

M. Dowman 50'

3/31/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Amelia Morais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Portugal U1924%

×Draw23%

England U1952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U19Expected goals in this matchEngland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.79

Portugal U19

1.15

England U19

1.79

England U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

2.50

1.07

allows per match

0.30

creates per match

Portugal U19

2.00

England U19

2.50

allows per match

Portugal U19

1.07

England U19

0.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par

England U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

England U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw

48%

Portugal U19 or England U19

77%

Draw or England U19

76%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

10%

England U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals

68%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

32%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

11%

England U19 1+ goals

83%

England U19 2+ goals

53%

England U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

32%

England U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

England U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.00 + England U19 defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

England U19 attack 2.50 + Portugal U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Portugal U19 scores more

24%

level

23%

England U19 scores more

52%

England U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Derry↳ M. Dowman

12'

R. Rodrigues

46'

D. Soares← J. Neto

46'

S. Vidigal← R. Rodrigues

48'

R. Quintas

50'

M. Dowman↳ B. Nfonkeu

56'

K. Noble

57'

G. Silva← J. Trovisco

57'

M. Figueiredo← R. Quintas

60'

J. Derry↳ M. Dowman

66'

C. McFarlane← K. Noble

71'

D. Mukasa← M. Dowman

71'

S. Sidibe← T. Nyoni

75'

E. Mayers↳ C. Rigg

77'

B. Lima← E. Felicissimo

81'

G. Hemmings← B. Nfonkeu

81'

H. Howell← J. Derry

85'

S. Mheuka↳ G. Hemmings

88'

H. Howell↳ O. Whatmuff

90'

F. Goncalves

90'

H. Howell

Portugal

England

Manager: Filipe Ramos

46'▲D. Soares←▼J. Neto

46'▲S. Vidigal←▼R. Rodrigues

57'▲G. Silva←▼J. Trovisco

57'▲M. Figueiredo←▼R. Quintas

77'▲B. Lima←▼E. Felicissimo

Manager: Will Antwi

66'▲C. McFarlane←▼K. Noble

71'▲D. Mukasa←▼M. Dowman

71'▲S. Sidibe←▼T. Nyoni

81'▲G. Hemmings←▼B. Nfonkeu

81'▲H. Howell←▼J. Derry