Portugal U19 4–0 Armenia U19: Result & Stats

Portugal U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Armenia U19

Diego Moreira 63'

Nuno Félix 51'

Youssef Chermiti 49'

Matchoi Djaló 35' (pen)

3/23/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2St George's Park - pitch 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Portugal U1964%

×Draw20%

Armenia U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U19Expected goals in this matchArmenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.04

Portugal U19

2.21

Armenia U19

1.04

Portugal U19 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Portugal U19

2.00

Armenia U19

1.00

allows per match

Portugal U19

1.07

Armenia U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

Armenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw

83%

Portugal U19 or Armenia U19

80%

Draw or Armenia U19

36%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

40%

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals

89%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

65%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

38%

Armenia U19 1+ goals

65%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

28%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Armenia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.00 + Armenia U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Armenia U19 attack 1.00 + Portugal U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Portugal U19 scores more

64%

level

20%

Armenia U19 scores more

17%

Portugal U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

V. Muradyan

30'

V. Makhsudyan

35'

Matchoi DjalóPenalty

37'

G. Arakelyan

38'

Y. Chermiti

46'

Carlos Borges← Pedro Santos

49'

Youssef Chermiti

51'

Nuno Félix

52'

E. Piloyan← V. Muradyan

52'

N. Manukyan← S. Hayrapetyan

54'

Diego Moreira← Joelson Fernandes

54'

Miguel Falé← Youssef Chermiti

62'

M. Hakobyan← L. Vardanyan

62'

Y. Martirosyan← D. Sargsyan

63'

Diego Moreira

69'

Dário Essugo← Nuno Félix

70'

Martim Neto← Matchoi Djaló

76'

T. Sargsyan← H. Minasyan

Portugal

Armenia

12

6

17

2

14

▼

Sargsyan

11

▼

Hayrapety

3

Makhsudya

18

Sargsyan

8

▼

Muradyan

7

▼

Vardanyan

9

▼

1

4

2

5

3

10

⚽

▼

Djaló

7

▼

Santos

18

Neves

15

⚽

▼

Félix

11

▼

Fernandes

9

⚽

▼

Chermiti

Manager: Rui Bento

46'▲Carlos Borges←▼Pedro Santos

54'▲Diego Moreira←▼Joelson Fernandes

54'▲Miguel Falé←▼Youssef Chermiti

69'▲Dário Essugo←▼Nuno Félix

70'▲Martim Neto←▼Matchoi Djaló

Portugal U19 substitutes

16Borges20Moreira19Falé6Essugo8Neto13Travassos14Brás12Carvalho17Sousa

Manager: V. Avetisyan

52'▲E. Piloyan←▼V. Muradyan

52'▲N. Manukyan←▼S. Hayrapetyan

62'▲M. Hakobyan←▼L. Vardanyan

62'▲Y. Martirosyan←▼D. Sargsyan

76'▲T. Sargsyan←▼H. Minasyan

Armenia U19 substitutes

20Piloyan19Manukyan10Hakobyan22Martirosyan13Sargsyan1Martirosyan5Smbatyan4Gevorgyan

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Portugal U19 4–0 Armenia U19

Portugal U19 beat Armenia U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2022.

Goals: Matchoi Djaló (35' pen), Youssef Chermiti (49'), Nuno Félix (51'), Diego Moreira (63').

The match was played at St George's Park - pitch 4 in Burton upon Trent, Staffordshire.

Portugal U19 vs Armenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Portugal U19 4–0 Armenia U19