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Portugal U18 W vs Finland U18 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Portugal U18 W
Portugal U18 W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Finland U18 W
Finland U18 W
M. Pettinen 65'
6/7/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U18 W36%
×Draw29%
Finland U18 W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U18 W
1.13
Finland U18 W
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portugal U18 W
1.75
Finland U18 W
1.50

allows per match

Portugal U18 W
0.75
Finland U18 W
0.50

finishing

Portugal U18 W+0.00on par
Finland U18 W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U18 W ↓

Finland U18 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Portugal U18 W or draw
64%
Portugal U18 W or Finland U18 W
71%
Draw or Finland U18 W
64%

Winning margin

Portugal U18 W wins by 2+
15%
Finland U18 W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Portugal U18 W 1+ goals
68%
Portugal U18 W 2+ goals
31%
Portugal U18 W 3+ goals
11%
Finland U18 W 1+ goals
68%
Finland U18 W 2+ goals
31%
Finland U18 W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portugal U18 W (draw refunded)
50%
Finland U18 W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U18 W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Finland U18 W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U18 W attack 1.75 + Finland U18 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Finland U18 W attack 1.50 + Portugal U18 W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Portugal U18 W scores more
36%
level
29%
Finland U18 W scores more
36%

Portugal U18 W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Portugal U18 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
M. Pettinen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Portugal U18 W 0–1 Finland U18 W

Finland U18 W beat Portugal U18 W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on June 7, 2026.

Goals: M. Pettinen (65').