Portugal U18 5–0 Norway U18: Result & Stats

Portugal U18

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Norway U18

6/11/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Portugal U1871%

×Draw18%

Norway U1812%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U18Expected goals in this matchNorway U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.81

Portugal U18

2.32

Norway U18

0.81

Portugal U18 creates 186% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

2.08

creates per match

1.00

0.62

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Portugal U18

2.08

Norway U18

1.00

allows per match

Portugal U18

0.62

Norway U18

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U18+0.00on par

Norway U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U18 ↓

Norway U18 →

0–04%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Portugal U18 or draw

88%

Portugal U18 or Norway U18

82%

Draw or Norway U18

29%

Winning margin

Portugal U18 wins by 2+

48%

Norway U18 wins by 2+

Team goals

Portugal U18 1+ goals

90%

Portugal U18 2+ goals

67%

Portugal U18 3+ goals

40%

Norway U18 1+ goals

56%

Norway U18 2+ goals

19%

Norway U18 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Portugal U18 (draw refunded)

86%

Norway U18 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portugal U18 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Norway U18 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U18 attack 2.08 + Norway U18 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.32

Norway U18 attack 1.00 + Portugal U18 defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Portugal U18 scores more

71%

level

18%

Norway U18 scores more

12%

Portugal U18 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Portugal U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff