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Portugal U18 vs Iceland U19 — Friendlies 2026

Portugal U18
Portugal U18
FT
4 – 0
Iceland U19
Iceland U19
3/28/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalCidade do Futebol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portugal U1869%
×Draw19%
Iceland U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U18
2.21
Iceland U19
0.81

Portugal U18 creates 173% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Portugal U18
2.08
Iceland U19
1.00

allows per match

Portugal U18
0.62
Iceland U19
2.33

finishing

Portugal U18+0.00on par
Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U18 ↓

Iceland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Portugal U18 or draw
88%
Portugal U18 or Iceland U19
81%
Draw or Iceland U19
31%

Winning margin

Portugal U18 wins by 2+
45%
Iceland U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Portugal U18 1+ goals
89%
Portugal U18 2+ goals
65%
Portugal U18 3+ goals
38%
Iceland U19 1+ goals
56%
Iceland U19 2+ goals
19%
Iceland U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Portugal U18 (draw refunded)
85%
Iceland U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U18 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U18 attack 2.08 + Iceland U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Iceland U19 attack 1.00 + Portugal U18 defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Portugal U18 scores more
69%
level
19%
Iceland U19 scores more
12%

Portugal U18 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Portugal U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portugal U18 vs Iceland U19

Portugal U18 beat Iceland U19 4-0 in Friendlies on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Cidade do Futebol in Lisbon - Oeiras.