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Portugal U18 vs Denmark U18 — Friendlies 2026

Portugal U18
Portugal U18
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Denmark U18
Denmark U18
3/26/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Portugal U1850%
×Draw25%
Denmark U1825%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U18
1.59
Denmark U18
1.06

Portugal U18 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Portugal U18
2.08
Denmark U18
1.50

allows per match

Portugal U18
0.62
Denmark U18
1.10

finishing

Portugal U18+0.00on par
Denmark U18+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U18 ↓

Denmark U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portugal U18 or draw
75%
Portugal U18 or Denmark U18
75%
Draw or Denmark U18
50%

Winning margin

Portugal U18 wins by 2+
26%
Denmark U18 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portugal U18 1+ goals
80%
Portugal U18 2+ goals
47%
Portugal U18 3+ goals
21%
Denmark U18 1+ goals
65%
Denmark U18 2+ goals
29%
Denmark U18 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portugal U18 (draw refunded)
66%
Denmark U18 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U18 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Denmark U18 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U18 attack 2.08 + Denmark U18 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.59

Denmark U18 attack 1.50 + Portugal U18 defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Portugal U18 scores more
50%
level
25%
Denmark U18 scores more
25%

Portugal U18 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Portugal U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portugal U18 vs Denmark U18

Denmark U18 beat Portugal U18 1-0 in Friendlies on March 26, 2024.