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Portugal U17 W vs Japan U17 — Friendlies Women 2026

Portugal U17 W
Portugal U17 W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Japan U17
Japan U17
1/27/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U17 W25%
×Draw23%
Japan U1752%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U17 W
1.21
Japan U17
1.83

Japan U17 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portugal U17 W
1.67
Japan U17
2.50

allows per match

Portugal U17 W
1.17
Japan U17
0.75

finishing

Portugal U17 W+0.00on par
Japan U17+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U17 W ↓

Japan U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Portugal U17 W or draw
48%
Portugal U17 W or Japan U17
77%
Draw or Japan U17
75%

Winning margin

Portugal U17 W wins by 2+
10%
Japan U17 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Portugal U17 W 1+ goals
70%
Portugal U17 W 2+ goals
34%
Portugal U17 W 3+ goals
12%
Japan U17 1+ goals
84%
Japan U17 2+ goals
54%
Japan U17 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Portugal U17 W (draw refunded)
33%
Japan U17 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U17 W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Japan U17 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U17 W attack 1.67 + Japan U17 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Japan U17 attack 2.50 + Portugal U17 W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Portugal U17 W scores more
25%
level
23%
Japan U17 scores more
52%

Japan U17 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Japan U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Portugal U17 W 1–0 Japan U17

Portugal U17 W beat Japan U17 1-0 in Friendlies Women on January 27, 2026.