Portugal U17 W 2–1 Denmark U17 W: Result & Stats

Portugal U17 W

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Denmark U17 W

L. Bessa 74', 67'

A. Thierry 52'

1/28/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U17 W55%

×Draw23%

Denmark U17 W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U17 WExpected goals in this matchDenmark U17 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.08

Portugal U17 W

1.83

Denmark U17 W

1.08

Portugal U17 W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Portugal U17 W

1.67

Denmark U17 W

1.00

allows per match

Portugal U17 W

1.17

Denmark U17 W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U17 W+0.00on par

Denmark U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U17 W ↓

Denmark U17 W →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Portugal U17 W or draw

78%

Portugal U17 W or Denmark U17 W

77%

Draw or Denmark U17 W

45%

Winning margin

Portugal U17 W wins by 2+

31%

Denmark U17 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Portugal U17 W 1+ goals

84%

Portugal U17 W 2+ goals

54%

Portugal U17 W 3+ goals

28%

Denmark U17 W 1+ goals

66%

Denmark U17 W 2+ goals

29%

Denmark U17 W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Portugal U17 W (draw refunded)

71%

Denmark U17 W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portugal U17 W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Denmark U17 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U17 W attack 1.67 + Denmark U17 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Denmark U17 W attack 1.00 + Portugal U17 W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Portugal U17 W scores more

55%

level

23%

Denmark U17 W scores more

22%

Portugal U17 W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Portugal U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

A. Thierry

67'

L. Bessa

74'

L. Bessa

Portugal

Denmark

⚽

Manager: Carlos Sacadura

Portugal U17 W substitutes

SerralheiroLauraFilipeBarbosaBessaMaiaRibeiroGomesNolascoLoucaoCarolina

Denmark U17 W substitutes

BindnerKruger-JohnsenKarstensenStraussKyndeDybdahlJensenGanzhornKnudsen

Friendlies Women: Portugal U17 W 2–1 Denmark U17 W

Portugal U17 W beat Denmark U17 W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on January 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Thierry (52'), L. Bessa (67', 74').

Portugal U17 W vs Denmark U17 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Portugal U17 W 2–1 Denmark U17 W