Portugal U17 2–1 Poland U17: Result & Stats

Portugal U17

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Poland U17

5/30/2024

UEFA U17 Championship · Quarter-finalsStadio Antonis Papadopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Portugal U1755%

×Draw19%

Poland U1726%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U17Expected goals in this matchPoland U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.65

Portugal U17

2.43

Poland U17

1.65

Portugal U17 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.43

1.88

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Portugal U17

2.00

Poland U17

1.43

allows per match

Portugal U17

1.88

Poland U17

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U17+0.00on par

Poland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U17 ↓

Poland U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Portugal U17 or draw

74%

Portugal U17 or Poland U17

81%

Draw or Poland U17

45%

Winning margin

Portugal U17 wins by 2+

34%

Poland U17 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Portugal U17 1+ goals

91%

Portugal U17 2+ goals

69%

Portugal U17 3+ goals

43%

Poland U17 1+ goals

81%

Poland U17 2+ goals

49%

Poland U17 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Portugal U17 (draw refunded)

68%

Poland U17 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U17 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Poland U17 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U17 attack 2.00 + Poland U17 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Poland U17 attack 1.43 + Portugal U17 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Portugal U17 scores more

55%

level

19%

Poland U17 scores more

26%

Portugal U17 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Portugal U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff