Portugal U17 1–2 Italy U17: Result & Stats

Portugal U17

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Italy U17

9/4/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portugal U1767%

×Draw20%

Italy U1713%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U17Expected goals in this matchItaly U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.74

Portugal U17

2.00

Italy U17

0.74

Portugal U17 creates 170% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

0.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Portugal U17

2.00

Italy U17

0.67

allows per match

Portugal U17

0.80

Italy U17

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U17+0.00on par

Italy U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U17 ↓

Italy U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Portugal U17 or draw

87%

Portugal U17 or Italy U17

80%

Draw or Italy U17

33%

Winning margin

Portugal U17 wins by 2+

42%

Italy U17 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Portugal U17 1+ goals

86%

Portugal U17 2+ goals

59%

Portugal U17 3+ goals

32%

Italy U17 1+ goals

52%

Italy U17 2+ goals

17%

Italy U17 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Portugal U17 (draw refunded)

84%

Italy U17 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U17 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Italy U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U17 attack 2.00 + Italy U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Italy U17 attack 0.67 + Portugal U17 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Portugal U17 scores more

67%

level

20%

Italy U17 scores more

13%

Portugal U17 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Portugal U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Portugal

Italy

Manager: Bino

Manager: M. Favo