Portugal U17 5–0 Finland U17: Result & Stats

Portugal U17

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Finland U17

N. Batista 90'

T. Rodrigues 76'

A. Semedo 35'

G. Guerra 24'

M. Ribeiro 18'

2/15/2026

Friendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U1777%

×Draw14%

Finland U179%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U17Expected goals in this matchFinland U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.90

Portugal U17

2.88

Finland U17

0.90

Portugal U17 creates 220% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

Portugal U17

2.00

Finland U17

1.00

allows per match

Portugal U17

0.80

Finland U17

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U17+0.00on par

Finland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U17 ↓

Finland U17 →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Portugal U17 or draw

91%

Portugal U17 or Finland U17

86%

Draw or Finland U17

23%

Winning margin

Portugal U17 wins by 2+

57%

Finland U17 wins by 2+

Team goals

Portugal U17 1+ goals

94%

Portugal U17 2+ goals

78%

Portugal U17 3+ goals

54%

Finland U17 1+ goals

59%

Finland U17 2+ goals

23%

Finland U17 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Portugal U17 (draw refunded)

89%

Finland U17 (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portugal U17 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Finland U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U17 attack 2.00 + Finland U17 defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Finland U17 attack 1.00 + Portugal U17 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Portugal U17 scores more

77%

level

14%

Finland U17 scores more

Portugal U17 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Portugal U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

24'

35'

76'

90'

Portugal

Finland

Manager: Bino

Manager: E. Lehtola