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Portugal U17 vs Denmark U17 — UEFA U17 Championship 2022

Portugal U17
Portugal U17
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Denmark U17
Denmark U17
5/23/2022UEFA U17 ChampionshipUEFA U17 Championship · Group Stage - 6National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U1753%
×Draw20%
Denmark U1727%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U17
2.25
Denmark U17
1.56

Portugal U17 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Portugal U17
2.00
Denmark U17
1.25

allows per match

Portugal U17
1.88
Denmark U17
2.50

finishing

Portugal U17+0.00on par
Denmark U17+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U17 ↓

Denmark U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Portugal U17 or draw
73%
Portugal U17 or Denmark U17
80%
Draw or Denmark U17
47%

Winning margin

Portugal U17 wins by 2+
32%
Denmark U17 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Portugal U17 1+ goals
89%
Portugal U17 2+ goals
65%
Portugal U17 3+ goals
39%
Denmark U17 1+ goals
79%
Denmark U17 2+ goals
46%
Denmark U17 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Portugal U17 (draw refunded)
67%
Denmark U17 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U17 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Denmark U17 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U17 attack 2.00 + Denmark U17 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Denmark U17 attack 1.25 + Portugal U17 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portugal U17 scores more
53%
level
20%
Denmark U17 scores more
27%

Portugal U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Portugal U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship: Portugal U17 1–3 Denmark U17

Denmark U17 beat Portugal U17 3-1 in UEFA U17 Championship on May 23, 2022.

The match was played at National Stadium Ramat Gan in Ramat Gan.