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Portugal U16 W vs Netherlands U16 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Portugal U16 W
Portugal U16 W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Netherlands U16 W
Netherlands U16 W
F. Branco 71'
A. Gelevert 70'
2/8/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portugal U16 W30%
×Draw31%
Netherlands U16 W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U16 W
0.91
Netherlands U16 W
1.09

Netherlands U16 W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Portugal U16 W
1.14
Netherlands U16 W
1.33

allows per match

Portugal U16 W
0.86
Netherlands U16 W
0.67

finishing

Portugal U16 W+0.00on par
Netherlands U16 W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U16 W ↓

Netherlands U16 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Portugal U16 W or draw
61%
Portugal U16 W or Netherlands U16 W
69%
Draw or Netherlands U16 W
70%

Winning margin

Portugal U16 W wins by 2+
10%
Netherlands U16 W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Portugal U16 W 1+ goals
60%
Portugal U16 W 2+ goals
23%
Portugal U16 W 3+ goals
6%
Netherlands U16 W 1+ goals
66%
Netherlands U16 W 2+ goals
30%
Netherlands U16 W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Portugal U16 W (draw refunded)
43%
Netherlands U16 W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U16 W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Netherlands U16 W away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U16 W attack 1.14 + Netherlands U16 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Netherlands U16 W attack 1.33 + Portugal U16 W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portugal U16 W scores more
30%
level
31%
Netherlands U16 W scores more
39%

Netherlands U16 W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Netherlands U16 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
A. Gelevert
71'
F. Branco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Portugal U16 W 1–1 Netherlands U16 W

Portugal U16 W and Netherlands U16 W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on February 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Gelevert (70'), F. Branco (71').