Portstewart 2–1 Lisburn Distillery: Result & Stats

Portstewart

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lisburn Distillery

1/31/2026

League #561 · Round 15Seahaven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Portstewart44%

×Draw23%

Lisburn Distillery33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortstewartExpected goals in this matchLisburn Distillery

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.52

Portstewart

1.76

Lisburn Distillery

1.52

Portstewart creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.57

creates per match

1.90

1.14

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Portstewart

1.57

Lisburn Distillery

1.90

allows per match

Portstewart

1.14

Lisburn Distillery

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par

Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Lisburn Distillery →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw

67%

Portstewart or Lisburn Distillery

77%

Draw or Lisburn Distillery

56%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+

23%

Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals

83%

Portstewart 2+ goals

52%

Portstewart 3+ goals

26%

Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals

78%

Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals

45%

Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)

57%

Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Lisburn Distillery away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 1.57 + Lisburn Distillery defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.76

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.90 + Portstewart defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portstewart scores more

44%

level

23%

Lisburn Distillery scores more

33%

Portstewart at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portstewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff