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Portstewart vs Coleraine FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Portstewart
Portstewart
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
P. Smith 31'
Unknown 70'
A. Jarvis 68', 65', 59'
A. Mitchell 24'
7/28/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Seahaven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Portstewart7%
×Draw12%
Coleraine FC81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portstewart
0.76
Coleraine FC
2.92

Coleraine FC creates 284% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Portstewart
0.60
Coleraine FC
2.83

allows per match

Portstewart
3.00
Coleraine FC
0.92

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par
Coleraine FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Coleraine FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw
19%
Portstewart or Coleraine FC
88%
Draw or Coleraine FC
93%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+
2%
Coleraine FC wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals
53%
Portstewart 2+ goals
18%
Portstewart 3+ goals
4%
Coleraine FC 1+ goals
94%
Coleraine FC 2+ goals
78%
Coleraine FC 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)
8%
Coleraine FC (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Coleraine FC away — creates 2.83, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 0.60 + Coleraine FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Coleraine FC attack 2.83 + Portstewart defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Portstewart scores more
7%
level
12%
Coleraine FC scores more
81%

Coleraine FC at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Coleraine FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
A. Mitchell
31'
P. Smith
59'
A. Jarvis
65'
65'
A. Jarvis
68'
A. Jarvis
70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Portstewart 1–5 Coleraine FC

Coleraine FC beat Portstewart 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 28, 2023.

Goals: A. Mitchell (24'), P. Smith (31'), A. Jarvis (59', 65', 68'), ? (70').

The match was played at Seahaven in Portstewart.