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Portstewart vs Banbridge Town — League #561 2026

Portstewart
Portstewart
FT
1 – 1
Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
3/1/2025League #561League #561 · Round 18Seahaven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Portstewart59%
×Draw19%
Banbridge Town22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portstewart
2.42
Banbridge Town
1.43

Portstewart creates 69% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Portstewart
1.94
Banbridge Town
1.61

allows per match

Portstewart
1.25
Banbridge Town
2.89

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par
Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Banbridge Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw
78%
Portstewart or Banbridge Town
81%
Draw or Banbridge Town
41%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+
38%
Banbridge Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals
91%
Portstewart 2+ goals
69%
Portstewart 3+ goals
43%
Banbridge Town 1+ goals
76%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
42%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)
73%
Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Banbridge Town away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 1.94 + Banbridge Town defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.42

Banbridge Town attack 1.61 + Portstewart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Portstewart scores more
59%
level
19%
Banbridge Town scores more
22%

Portstewart at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Portstewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portstewart vs Banbridge Town

Portstewart and Banbridge Town drew 1-1 in League #561 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Seahaven in Portstewart.