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Portstewart vs Ballyclare Comrades — League #561 2026

Portstewart
Portstewart
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
3/14/2026League #561League #561

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portstewart64%
×Draw19%
Ballyclare Comrades17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portstewart
2.38
Ballyclare Comrades
1.16

Portstewart creates 105% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Portstewart
1.44
Ballyclare Comrades
1.00

allows per match

Portstewart
1.31
Ballyclare Comrades
3.33

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par
Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw
83%
Portstewart or Ballyclare Comrades
81%
Draw or Ballyclare Comrades
36%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+
42%
Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals
91%
Portstewart 2+ goals
68%
Portstewart 3+ goals
42%
Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
69%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
32%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)
79%
Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 1.44 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.00 + Portstewart defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Portstewart scores more
64%
level
19%
Ballyclare Comrades scores more
17%

Portstewart at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Portstewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Portstewart 4–1 Ballyclare Comrades

Portstewart beat Ballyclare Comrades 4-1 in League #561 on March 14, 2026.