Portsmouth W 1–2 Southampton W: Result & Stats

Portsmouth W

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Southampton W

12/10/2023

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundDraper Tools Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Portsmouth W53%

×Draw19%

Southampton W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portsmouth WExpected goals in this matchSouthampton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.84

Portsmouth W

2.57

Southampton W

1.84

Portsmouth W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

4.25

creates per match

2.56

1.13

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Portsmouth W

4.25

Southampton W

2.56

allows per match

Portsmouth W

1.13

Southampton W

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portsmouth W+0.00on par

Southampton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth W ↓

Southampton W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Portsmouth W or draw

72%

Portsmouth W or Southampton W

81%

Draw or Southampton W

47%

Winning margin

Portsmouth W wins by 2+

34%

Southampton W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Portsmouth W 1+ goals

92%

Portsmouth W 2+ goals

72%

Portsmouth W 3+ goals

47%

Southampton W 1+ goals

84%

Southampton W 2+ goals

55%

Southampton W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth W (draw refunded)

66%

Southampton W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth W at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Southampton W away — creates 2.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth W attack 4.25 + Southampton W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 2.57

Southampton W attack 2.56 + Portsmouth W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portsmouth W scores more

53%

level

19%

Southampton W scores more

28%

Portsmouth W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Portsmouth W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff