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Portsmouth W vs Leyton Orient W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Portsmouth W
Portsmouth W
FT
6 – 1
Leyton Orient W
Leyton Orient W
12/8/2019FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundPMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Portsmouth W57%
×Draw17%
Leyton Orient W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth W
3.02
Leyton Orient W
2.06

Portsmouth W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Portsmouth W
4.25
Leyton Orient W
3.00

allows per match

Portsmouth W
1.13
Leyton Orient W
1.80

finishing

Portsmouth W+0.00on par
Leyton Orient W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth W ↓

Leyton Orient W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Portsmouth W or draw
74%
Portsmouth W or Leyton Orient W
83%
Draw or Leyton Orient W
43%

Winning margin

Portsmouth W wins by 2+
38%
Leyton Orient W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portsmouth W 1+ goals
95%
Portsmouth W 2+ goals
80%
Portsmouth W 3+ goals
57%
Leyton Orient W 1+ goals
87%
Leyton Orient W 2+ goals
61%
Leyton Orient W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth W (draw refunded)
69%
Leyton Orient W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth W at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Leyton Orient W away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth W attack 4.25 + Leyton Orient W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 3.02

Leyton Orient W attack 3.00 + Portsmouth W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Portsmouth W scores more
57%
level
17%
Leyton Orient W scores more
26%

Portsmouth W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Portsmouth W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portsmouth W vs Leyton Orient W

Portsmouth W beat Leyton Orient W 6-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at PMC Stadium in Portsmouth, Hampshire.