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Portsmouth W vs Bowers & Pitsea W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Portsmouth W
Portsmouth W
FT
7 – 0
Bowers & Pitsea W
Bowers & Pitsea W
11/27/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundDraper Tools Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portsmouth W94%
×Draw4%
Bowers & Pitsea W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth W
4.46
Bowers & Pitsea W
0.56

Portsmouth W creates 696% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Portsmouth W
4.25
Bowers & Pitsea W
0.00

allows per match

Portsmouth W
1.13
Bowers & Pitsea W
4.67

finishing

Portsmouth W+0.00on par
Bowers & Pitsea W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth W ↓

Bowers & Pitsea W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Portsmouth W or draw
98%
Portsmouth W or Bowers & Pitsea W
96%
Draw or Bowers & Pitsea W
6%

Winning margin

Portsmouth W wins by 2+
84%
Bowers & Pitsea W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Portsmouth W 1+ goals
99%
Portsmouth W 2+ goals
92%
Portsmouth W 3+ goals
79%
Bowers & Pitsea W 1+ goals
43%
Bowers & Pitsea W 2+ goals
11%
Bowers & Pitsea W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth W (draw refunded)
98%
Bowers & Pitsea W (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth W at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Bowers & Pitsea W away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth W attack 4.25 + Bowers & Pitsea W defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.46

Bowers & Pitsea W attack 0.00 + Portsmouth W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Portsmouth W scores more
94%
level
4%
Bowers & Pitsea W scores more
2%

Portsmouth W at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Portsmouth W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portsmouth W vs Bowers & Pitsea W

Portsmouth W beat Bowers & Pitsea W 7-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Draper Tools Community Stadium in Havant, Hampshire.