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Portsmouth vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
1/1/2024League OneLeague One · Round 26Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Portsmouth49%
×Draw26%
Stevenage25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.48
Stevenage
0.97

Portsmouth creates 53% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 70 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Stevenage
0.94

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Stevenage
1.23

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
75%
Portsmouth or Stevenage
74%
Draw or Stevenage
51%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
25%
Stevenage wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
77%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
43%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
19%
Stevenage 1+ goals
62%
Stevenage 2+ goals
25%
Stevenage 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
66%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Portsmouth scores more
49%
level
26%
Stevenage scores more
25%

Portsmouth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Portsmouth 2–1 Stevenage

Portsmouth beat Stevenage 2-1 in League One on January 1, 2024.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.