Portsmouth 3–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Rotherham

B. Close 66'

J. Marquis 37'

R. Curtis 1'

F. Ladapo 62' (pen), 15'

11/26/2019

League One · Round 5Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Portsmouth46%

×Draw27%

Rotherham27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.04

Portsmouth

1.43

Rotherham

1.04

Portsmouth creates 38% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 89 away

1.71

creates per match

1.08

1.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.71

Rotherham

1.08

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.00

Rotherham

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

73%

Portsmouth or Rotherham

73%

Draw or Rotherham

54%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

22%

Rotherham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

76%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

42%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

17%

Rotherham 1+ goals

65%

Rotherham 2+ goals

28%

Rotherham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

63%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 139 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.71 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rotherham attack 1.08 + Portsmouth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portsmouth scores more

46%

level

27%

Rotherham scores more

27%

Portsmouth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Curtis

Portsmouth · M

8.2

Match Events

1'

R. Curtis↳ Ryan Williams

15'

F. Ladapo

37'

J. Marquis↳ E. Harrison

46'

C. Ogbene← M. Olosunde

48'

Ellis Harrison

51'

Chiedozie Ogbene

62'

F. LadapoPenalty

66'

B. Close

73'

M. Crooks← K. Vassell

73'

J. Lindsay← D. Barlaser

78'

M. Harness← Ryan Williams

89'

Carlton Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthRotherham

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots14

2Corners6

18Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots14

8On Target5

5Off Target5

3Blocked4

8Inside Box11

8Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

333Total Passes268

199Accurate Passes129

60%Pass Accuracy48%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3